Methodology

How I pick, stake and settle — and how every number is calculated

The recipe stays in my kitchen. But every number on this site can be checked, and this page explains exactly where it comes from — including the parts that make me look worse.

Where the data comes from

Scores come from the official EsportsBattle results (Esoccer Battle, Volta and eBasket). Prices are the bookmaker odds available when the pick is posted. Player history — goals for and against, form and head-to-head, separately for each format — is built from those same official results. No insiders, no "fixed matches", no paid leaks.

How a pick is chosen

For each market I estimate the real chance of the bet from the two players' recent numbers in that exact format, then compare it with the bookmaker's price. A pick is only posted when the odds pay clearly more than that chance deserves (the edge). Every pick shows its minimum odds: the lowest price at which it still has positive expected value. New markets are tested privately first and only reach the channel after their own numbers prove them — nothing tested in private is ever added to the public record afterwards.

Stakes

Stakes are in units: 1u = 1% of your bankroll. Picks go from 1u to 2u right now. The strongest ones can climb up to 4u — only once the numbers have earned it. A stake level only goes up after at least 150 published picks at the current level with a clear statistical edge and a profit, and it drops back by itself if a level goes wrong. Never more than 4u on a single pick.

How picks are settled

• With the official final score, the moment the match ends.
• Won: profit = units × (odds − 1). Lost: − units.
• Push (whole line landing exactly, e.g. under 6 with 6 goals): stake back, 0u. Quarter lines: half the stake is settled on each neighbouring line.
• Void (match cancelled or not played): 0u, and it doesn't count as a pick in the win rate.

The formulas

• Units = the sum of every settled profit and loss.
• ROI = units won ÷ units staked. A 2u pick counts twice the stake of a 1u pick.
• Win rate = won ÷ (won + lost). Pushes and voids are left out.
• € figures = units × €20 (an example unit; yours depends on your bankroll).
• Days on the results calendar are UTC calendar days.

Three honest versions of the ROI

You won't always get my exact price, so I show the record three ways (current system, since 29 Sep 2026):

• At the posted odds: 2,843 picks, +291.0u, ROI +9.6%.
• At the minimum odds of each pick (the worst price still worth taking): ROI +2.9%.
• At the closing odds (the last price before kickoff, 1,856 picks with one): ROI +7.3%.

Is it luck?

Using the bookmaker's own odds (margin included) as the expected win chance, my current picks should have won 1428 times out of 2,801. They won 1564 — +5.2 standard deviations above the bookie. Strong evidence of an edge so far; not a promise about the future.

The bad numbers, too

• Biggest drawdown (from a high point to the next low, pick by pick): −17.9u.
• Worst day: −7.9u (2026-10-08).
• Longest losing streak: 10 picks in a row.

The next bad run can be longer. That's why units stay small — read bankroll management and bookmaker limits & starting bankroll.

What the timestamps prove — and what they don't

Since 18 Oct 2026 every pick is sealed with OpenTimestamps the moment it's posted. That proves the exact text (match, bet, odds, stake) existed before kickoff and was never edited. It does not prove you could get those odds at your bookie — that's what the minimum-odds and closing-odds ROI above are for. Every pick is also announced in the channel the second it's posted and settled on the public scoreboard, so a hidden loser would leave a gap anyone can spot.

Changes to the system

The first system (26–29 Sep 2026) lost money. It was replaced on 29 Sep 2026 and its picks are still public behind a link on the results page — nothing is deleted. Stake levels and markets change only by the rules above, and changes are announced.

18+ · Betting involves risk and no result is guaranteed — not even with me. Only bet where it's legal for you. See Responsible Gambling.